鄉音

Yufen Chun 2021-11-09 2 min read {Quotes} [Lectures]

「不排除有此可能」是等如「有此可能」嗎?

「沒有證據有效」是等如「沒有效」嗎?

「看不到證據」是等如「沒有證據」嗎?

有人認為:「不排除有此可能」的意思是,沒有證據顯示這種事情可能發生,也沒有證據顯示這種事情不可能發生;也就是說,事情是否可能發生,我們都不知道,根本完全沒有指出任何因果關係。

有人認為:當人說「沒有證據顯示···」時,我們要問「在甚麼情況下沒有證據?」

有人認為:

Level Legal standards of proof Informal scientific levels of certainty Bayesian probability Level in IPCC
10 Beyond any doubt Fundamental theory that explains a wide range of observation 100% (absent)
9 Beyond a reasonable doubt Rigorously proven, critical experiment(s) give(s) a clear result > 99% Virtually certain
8 Clear and convincing evidence Substantially proven; a few details remain to be worked out; reasonably certain 90 - 99% Very likely
7 Clearly showing Very probable 80 - 90% Likely
6 Substantial and credible evidence Probable; evidence points in this direction, but not fully proven 67 - 80% Likely
5 Preponderance of evidence If I have to choose, this seems more likely true than untrue 50 - 67% Medium likelihood
4 Clear indication Attractive but unproven; evidence is beginning to accumulate in this direction 33 - 50% Medium likelihood
3 Probable cause: reasonable grounds for belief Plausible hypothesis, supported by some evidence 10- 33% Unlikely
2 Reasonable, articulate grounds for suspicion Possible 1 - 10% Very unlikely
1 No reasonable grounds for suspicion Unlikely: available evidence is against it, or violates existing paradigms, but not entirely ruled out < 1% Exceptionally unlikely
0 Impossible Against the known laws of physics or other science 0% Exceptionally unlikely

IPCC 是 Second Report of the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.

參考:Charles West 的 “Expressing Scientific Uncertainty” 在 “Law, Probability and Risk” 的 2003 年版的第 2 期,第 25 至 46 頁。

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